Sars-Cov-2 stuff

[jack]

yeah that's the poverty of inductive logic...

Harsh. I'm not sure that's a good example of inductive reasoning.

[izzy wizzy]

Well for the pedants, I should have added I also declined coz I won't be exposed to any flu as none of us go anywhere to get any. However if I'm eligible for the flu jab in NZ later this year, given life is fairly normal there, I may have one for their variants.

[jack]

My understanding, naive as it is, is that our winter 'flu vaccine is derived from what variants are detected in the southern hemisphere about 10 months before, as they tend to move north towards the end of the year.

Composition of that years UK winter 'flu vaccine is decided around February and the orders for millions of doses placed then, in order to be ready by October/November.

So, if you have the UK one, it's really dealing with stuff that the southern hemisphere have seen nearly a year before...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-20611937

[Scottmoose]

'far as I know that's roughly how it's done. The contents are also largely predicated on educated guesswork about which are likely to be the most prevalent strains, which is why some years it isn't as effective.

I always get the flu vaccine. Madness not to IMO if you have no medical condition that makes it risky (rare indeed). I never bothered as a teenager, even though I'm granted one free due to asthma. I learned my lesson the hard way over New Year '99 - 2000 when I was hit by two strains at the same time & ended up in hospital with pneumonia. Not an experience I can recommend, especially since it caused all kinds of other havoc and my immune system has never been quite the same since. Suffice it to say, for the last 2 decades I've had the yearly vaccine as soon as I can get it.

[Max N]

I also get my flu jab every year now. The lady who gave me mine said 'you won't get the flu, but tomorrow you might feel a bit like you're going to get the flu'.
That's exactly how I felt, nothing severe enough to be compared to real flu or even man flu, just felt a bit 'fluey' the next day.

[izzy wizzy]

Maybe it's like the situation I found myself in 2 ski seasons ago where standing in the ski queue, found I was the only one not wearing a helmet. Being the odd one out made me think what makes me so special? So went and got one straight away; very comfy and warm Two days later had the biggest wipe out at speed I can remember and hit my head very hard on hard pack snow/ice. Would have been in hospital without it. I should prolly get me some of that flu jab thing when the next opportunity arrives.

[simon]

A friend's dad always used to rib me for wearing a helmet when I was on my mountain bike as he had said he'd never needed one in probably 40 years. I just said I'd never needed one either, but if the day came when I did I hoped I'd be wearing it.

This obviously resonated with him as he bought one. I didn't know this till after he'd had a high speed crash coming down a steep road. Some 6 weeks after his arms and legs were covered in large scabs, but he said the helmet had saved his life and was written off the first time he'd worn it.

Just like insurance. You hope you never need it, but if you do you hope it's good enough.

[vinylnvalves]

Got my first dose this morning done, 20 mins turn around at the velodrome in Derby. It’s good to see the building being put to good use, for the masses. Weird feeling seeing that many people after 10 months isolating. Now I feel confident enough to have the tree surgeon drop of 10 tonnes of logs to replenish the log store. I didn’t want a drive full of logs as my legacy for someone else to have to chop up.

[andrew Ivimey]

Three weeks now to build up you immunity!

[vinylnvalves]

Yes, I know that, unlikely to be socialising anyway. My risk is my wife’s a front line worker, the risk is she would be bringing it home, she had her vaccine 3 weeks ago. Not enough evidence that she cannot be a carrier though yet. Bi-weekly testing has been our only line of defence, except for me zoflora-ing everything that comes through the door.

[Ant]

Our outside contact consisted of me going to the shops once or twice a week for bits, the morrisons delivery person, postie, and the kids going to school.
Both my sons refused point blank to take their masks off at school, to the point where both schools spoke to me on numerous occasions to try to talk them into taking them off in lessons so they could hear them properly in lessons.
They still refused.

Son no 1 has to take public transport into doncaster, so aas doubly exposed. He used so much hand sanitiser that his hands were red raw when he got home.

All 3 schools had cases, and year groups had to isolate.
My wife hasnt left the house at all since august 2019, her bipolar disorder and anxiety means that she probably wouldnt have left the house very much in any case.

We havent had anyone have display any symptoms at all, not to say that we have avoided it because theres no way to tell, but i do think that the lads refusal to remove their masks and the schools efforts in enforcing hand washing and distancing has made the difference.

That and the fact that my kids have not once been out in a group with friends since this all started. Its disappointing to see groups of teens around the area, the kids and teens are a lsrge possible vector because they are likely to be asymptomatic, largely unaffected and not even know they are carrying it.

Every single thing thats come into this house in the last 12 months has been disinfected, door handles have been cleaned everytime someone has come in, and hands washed as soon as anyone comes in too.

Its become automatic.

The mental health aspect is another matter entirely, my wifes has been incredibly difficult to deal with, as has son no 1. Not so much son no 2 who is so laid back hes horizontal, or my daughter who has taken to discord, (no farceberk or that type of social media), but my own has taken a massive battering. But i can pick myself up after a long walk, give my head a wobble and reset. Ive had 15 years of practice because of my wifes condition, i have had no choice. I dread to think how others have coped.

We wont get the vaccine for a good while yet because we are under 40 (just) so we will just have to continue to do what we are doing until then and after the vaccine has been administered.

The mental health fallout from this is going to be astronomical. It already is.

[Nick]

I feel for you Ant. But unless there is more involved, I would think that your odds of being affected seriously by Sars-Cov-2 is low, so that's one thing.

[vinylnvalves]

Ant your challenges are probably echoed around the country, I know I am very fortunate, and there are many in far worse situations than mine. Yes I am vulnerable but I can work from home, which has saved my sanity. Things we have missed out on are first world problems like going abroad on holiday etc. My worry’s are for the my children’s mental health, I have all 3 back home currently, the eldest is working from home and just intolerant sometimes. The middle lad who’s doing his final year at university seems to be coping, but I fear will end up staying in education after he finishes, if he can get a phd project. The youngest who went to university in September had a wobble and dropped off his course, don’t think him being locked up in his room for 2 weeks twice in a row for Covid outbreaks and everything being online helped. He had no physical interaction, not sure if he’s going to be ready to get back on the education horse in September again if at all.
People have to get it into the mindset that what we are going now is going to be the norm for the long haul. Holidays going to the pub etc aren’t necessities they are an easy sacrifice to get through this. I blew my top with a work colleague who was complaining he cannot pick up his recently restored sports car because of lockdown.

[Ant]

Yes you're right nick inasmuch as the virus itsself isnt actually a huge concern due to our own steps and those the schools, and theo's use of public transport, which in our case is the main point of contact with people.
With emma and theo, its the constant anxiety that has been the biggest thing to deal with.
We havent been directly affected by the virus, other than the obvious difficulties in getting hold of things, which has gotten much easier over the last 12 months, and the fact that emma has had very little contact from the mental health services she relies on for her medication and support.
Luckily, getting in touch with them as and when needed has been fine, its them contacting her for medication reviews ect which has not been possible, and understandably nobody has been out to see her either, which was happening on a monthly basis up until january last year.
Ive had to deal with things as they have cropped up without that support.
That isnt a criticism of the support services at all, i know how thin they are stretched, and the fact that i can get in touch if i really need to has been enough.
Ive just had to take more walks than i would usually, to square myself away more often than i would usually have to.
Im absolutely sure that many many people have had things much worse than we have

[simon]

My risk is my wife’s a front line worker, the risk is she would be bringing it home, she had her vaccine 3 weeks ago. Not enough evidence that she cannot be a carrier though yet.

I thought the indications are that having the vaccine doesn't stop you being able to pass it on? I'm not sure there's any serious understanding yet, or I've missed it, but I heard something suggesting that not everyone will be completely unaffected - 90% suggests 1 in 10 will get it, but maybe some of the other 9 will have mild symptoms, and therefore carriers? And those immune could still spread it by touch?

But the gist seems to be that it won't just disappear if we all get the vaccine. And as it seems a critical mass of people aren't able to do what's needed I wonder if it might be next spring before we start to see the real picture? Fingers crossed for no mutations that are resistant to the current vaccines.