Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

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IslandPink
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#481 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

This Drakeford fella is really starting to annoy me :

"Lockdown changes 'broadly' similar in England

The first minister says he believes Boris Johnson’s lockdown announcement for England on Sunday will be “broadly” similar.
Mark Drakeford said announcing changes in Wales ahead of the prime minister’s public address was “not an attempt to place any restraints” on Downing Street."

If the changes in England are going to be broadly similar, then that would mean a significant tightening of the rules on Sunday.
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#482 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

Hooray, we're getting on top of this virus, time to ease lockdown :
https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries
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#483 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by pre65 »

Seems that China have problems.

"Coronavirus: Wuhan in first virus cluster since end of lockdown"


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52613138
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#484 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by Cressy Snr »

EBB53648-0616-4C7D-BF63-19569E8A6545.jpeg
Copied from another place and very true.
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#485 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

:thumbup:

I see in the Prime Minister's clarification briefing this afternoon, he explained that the reason for the differing approaches within the UK regions, as regards lockdown easing, is due to the different Ro reproductions ratios, geographically .
Excess_week18.JPG
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#486 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by jack »

IslandPink wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 6:23 pm :thumbup:

I see in the Prime Minister's clarification briefing this afternoon, he explained that the reason for the differing approaches within the UK regions, as regards lockdown easing, is due to the different Ro reproductions ratios, geographically .

Excess_week18.JPG
The normalised excess deaths are difficult to compare, as the accompanying notes to the source data for the above map show (see below), i.e. the UK and Belgium now count deaths in care homes, which most other countries do not - this makes a huge difference. Further than that, I believe Belgium count a care home death as CoVid-19 just on the patient being symptomatic, i.e. no test is necessary. It's very difficult to blindly compare these figures.
Three points on confirmed death figures to keep in mind:
All three points are true for all currently available international data sources on COVID-19 deaths.
  • the actual total death toll from COVID-19 is likely to be higher than the number of confirmed deaths – this is due to limited testing and problems in the attribution of the cause of death; the difference between reported confirmed deaths and total deaths varies by country
  • how COVID-19 deaths are recorded may differ between countries (e.g. some countries may only count hospital deaths, whilst others have started to include deaths in homes)
  • the reported death figures on a given date does not necessarily show the number of new deaths on that day: this is due to delays in reporting.
Cressy Snr wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 4:47 pm (something about fat cats and scum)

Copied from another place and very true.
Amusing though this may seem, the vast majority of businesses are small and the owners are not necessary wealthy at all. They provide the bulk of employment in this country and many will go to the wall as their fixed costs are still in place, i.e. rent, rates, loan repayments etc. Yes, furlough has eased matters for some, but the consequences of total shutdown will be catastrophic for many. That of course has to be weighed against the risks associated with folk a) going to and from work, and b) being at work with colleagues...

There are no easy answers (but a lot of trite ones).
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IslandPink
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#487 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

jack wrote: Mon May 11, 2020 6:39 pm The normalised excess deaths are difficult to compare, as the accompanying notes to the source data for the above map show (see below), i.e. the UK and Belgium now count deaths in care homes, which most other countries do not - this makes a huge difference. Further than that, I believe Belgium count a care home death as CoVid-19 just on the patient being symptomatic, i.e. no test is necessary. It's very difficult to blindly compare these figures.
Are the normalised excess deaths counted in different ways between England, Scotland and Wales ? - that was my point. I cannot see how the Ro value can be highest in Wales , requiring the tightest lockdown, if the normalised excess death rate is a lot lower than England.
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#488 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

This is a well-considered item by the FT :
https://www.ft.com/content/82c1ab5a-938 ... 9244625ac4
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#489 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by Nick »

I cannot see how the Ro value can be highest in Wales , requiring the tightest lockdown, if the normalised excess death rate is a lot lower than England.
If they didn't all start at the same time, then that may explain the numbers. The excess deaths are (I believe) linear, where as R0 follows a power law.
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#490 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

But week 18 is for end of April, beginning of May.
The deaths didn't start later in Wales, there was a cluster in South Wales right from the start when the numbers picked up in March.
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#491 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by Nick »

Just saying what might, not what does.
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#492 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

Yes, OK . I might get some insider information tomorrow if I can catch Chris, the gardener ( not my gardener, the landlord's gardener ! ).
His wife Anna works in the hospital and has been on Covid-19 duty in the last month.
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#493 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

Currently only 1 person in ICU with Covid, in Bodelwyddan ( which covers half of North Wales ).
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#494 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by Ray P »

Thermionic Idler wrote: Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:59 am The hunt begins next week.
How are you getting on Dave?
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#495 Re: Corona Virus Lock Down 'Rant' Thread.

Post by IslandPink »

I just ordered a Covid-19 antibody test from Medichecks . They were offering it to previous customers. It's got to be useful to know, one way or the other, eg. for visiting my mum.
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